Congressman Gabbard, October 2007

Congressman Mike Gabbard. Sounds too bizarre to believe? Well, Publis tosses out there that this is a real possibility in the near future.

Consider the dynamics. Hawaii is the only state with two senators over the age of 80. Case tried to do something about that, but Hawaii voters simply decided he didn’t make a good enough case. What that does mean is there will be some turn over in Hawaii’s congressional delegation sometime soon. Maybe 2008, maybe 2010, maybe 2012, but unless Inouye or Akaka have some special youth potion we all don’t know about, it will happen.

Now, when it does happen, you can count on another bench clearing brawl for that US Senate seat. Pretty much everyone in town is betting on Ed Case, Neil Abercrombie, Mufi Hannemann, Linda Lingle, and maybe Mazie Hirono to scrap it out for the Senate seat. But how about for Abercrombie’s, and maybe Hirono’s, US House seat(s)?

Well, we will still see a big donnybrook over any open US House seat. Count on several senators, councilmembers and other assorted political wannabes running. Just look at the 2002 special election for Patsy Mink’s seat and the open race for Ed Case’s seat in 2006. Both attracted 10+ “serious” candidates.

What it takes to win in such a wide open field is not getting 51% of the vote, but being able to hold on to a solid 25% or 30% of the vote and you win the Democratic Primary. Win the Dem. primary in Hawaii and you become a Congressman. That’s what Ed Case did in 2002 and what Mazie Hirono did in 2006. (Indeed, check the record, Mazie won the Democratic primary with just under 22% of the vote.)

What Case and Hirono had going for them was solid name ID through major state-wide campaigns. But who will take it in 2008 or 2010? Unless there is some radical change up, there aren’t any other major Dems. who have run for major state-wide office. Instead we have a bunch of lesser known candidates.

Who can hold on to a solid, rabid base and collect 30% of the vote? Publis is currently giving that nod to the “New” Democrat State Senator Mike Gabbard. Gabbard ran for Congress against Ed Case in 2004 campaigning on the theme that Case was too liberal for Hawaii. Gabbard is probably more disliked by the Democratic base than any other Democrat in Hawaii. But in a wide open congressional race, the Democratic base will simply not be united. When the Democrat base is united in a primary, they can re-elect Akaka; when the base is divided, weird things happen like making Ed Case a Congressman. In a future congressional race, the Democratic base will divide its vote between already run losers like Duke Bainum, Nestor Garcia, Brian Schatz and Ron Menor, and soon to be running losers like Donna Kim, Kirk Caldwell and Will Espero.

Another thing to think about is that the Democratic Party has what appears to be a coming fight in a US House primary between the haoles (Bainum, Schatz, Caldwell) and the Filipinos (Mercado Kim, Espero, Garcia, Menor). This will make it all the more possible for a Polynesian candidate like Gabbard to break through.

Mike Gabbard is different. He has a rabid base on his own with his right-wing social agenda. This is a solid base that will follow him in a Democratic primary. As scary as it seems, short of Abercrombie not seeking re-election and allowing the Democratic base to unite behind Neil, Gabbard is simply in the best position to grab 25+% of the vote in a Democratic primary to win. There are a lot of Democrats who other Democrats like, but unlike any other Democrat, Gabbard has a (some say fanatical) following loyal to him and only to him. Maybe Bainum can stop Gabbard with his check book – but Publis thinks Duke will have to start actually living in Hawaii again soon and hope HawaiiReporter.com goes under before making a realistic run for Congress.

So yes folks, get use to the idea of a Hawaii Congressman Mike Gabbard coming soon. Then again, the alternative of a Congressman Charles Djou is now looking a lot better.

Pau,

Publis Hawaii