Abercrombie Should Reconsider Governor, May 2006
Open Letter to Hawaii Democrats and Congressman Neil Abercrombie
OK, at the start of 2006, things were looking boring and bleak for us Democrats. But then Ed Case turned the whole political scene upside down. At a recent late-session meeting of several House Democrats (and at pretty much every Democrat fundraiser I’ve been to over the last several months), the buzz was all about who is backing Case, who is backing Akaka, and who’s going to declare for the US House before the filing deadline. But the big thing has been the buzz. This buzz is good for the party. It’s nerve wracking. It’s scary. But it’s also getting Democrats really excited.
The problem is that we don’t have good buzz about the governor’s race. The excitement about the US Senate race and the 2nd Congressional race is universal. But it is matched with a deafening silence amongst Democrats about the governor’s race. There should be, but there is no spill over. Yes, I know Brickwood has to smile and say Iwase has a chance. But let’s be honest with ourselves, in private no one – and I mean no one - is saying Randy has a prayer. Yes I know four years ago, people were saying Ed Case had almost no chance, but at least we were qualifying it with “almost.” This time, however, I don’t think Chinatown has even given Iwase a line. Absolutely no one is betting on him. You know things are bad when Hotel Street is giving Bev Harbin better odds than Iwase.
If you want to see the Democratic Party Chair get defensive, just ask him, “Who’s running for Lieutenant Governor?” (If you want to see Brickwood get real defensive, ask him, “Who do you support in Rhode Island’s elections?”) The conventional wisdom and talk of Chinatown betting line is that Lingle has a very weak running mate. No one thinks Duke Aiona has what it takes to win on his own, let alone lead Hawaii in 2010. But it is a sorry statement about how weak our party’s prospects are for Washington Place that no one is willing to take on Duke Aiona. The LG may be weak, but Publis is pretty sure he can beat a non-existent candidate.
This is the thing, with the Akaka-Case match up and the buzz in the 2nd Congressional, I now do think we have a chance against Linda Lingle. Last fall, when Neil Abercrombie was pondering challenging Lingle, it was a long shot. Neil did a poll, looked at the numbers - which were really bad - and decided to pass. Today, however, things are different. The excitement amongst Democrats is contagious. What was a long shot in October is still not a good shot today, but it is now a decent shot because of this buzz floating in the air.
But the problem for us Democrats is that we need someone “big” to take advantage of all of this energy. We need a first tier candidate to properly channel all of this excitement felt by Democrats into a good governor’s campaign. Other than Mufi Hannemann, the only one who could pull this off and properly tap into this buzz is our favorite Buffalo Bruiser and Manoa Maniac – Neil Abercrombie.
Folks, I’m talkin’ about a real potential for some real synergy here – yes I’m talkin’ about making 2 + 2 equal 5 without a Jeremy Harris budget analyst. But it only works if the whole team pulls together with the right equipment. I love Randy Iwase (I think I even voted for him when he ran for Mayor way back when), but he’s not the guy to do it. Neil Abercrombie is.
Neil Abercrombie deserves to give this governor’s race a second look. Abercrombie turns 68 next month, and if he waits his turn, he will never get a turn at state-wide office. The congressman himself made the case for needing seniority in Congress to get things done when he bowed out of the governor’s race on Halloween. He can’t wait much longer to take a crack at becoming a US Senator, and then build the seniority he says is needed in Washington when Abercrombie himself is now pushing 70. Things were different when Ed Case wasn’t trying to jump in line. But Ed has completely changed the political dynamics. In 2010 Lingle will be term limited - but it will be Mufi’s turn for Washington Place, not Neil’s. It’s 2006 or never Neil.
For all of the aspiring Democrats for the 1st Congressional District, keep in mind that if Neil doesn’t run for Governor this year and stays in the House, you may never get to run for Congress. If Neil says in DC as long as Akaka or Inouye plan on staying in DC – that is until age 86 - that’s another 18 years. Do the math, there might not be a vacancy in the 1st district until sometime in the year 2024. Put that in perspective, in 2024, baby-faces like Donovan Dela Cruz and Kimo Apana will be older than Linda Lingle is today. Looked from another angle some of our party faithful who have been waiting patiently for an open seat like, Donna Kim or Duke Bainum, will be in their late-60s or early-70s, well too late to START a congressional career.
Just think, 100 days ago, there was no primary for the US Senate, Abercrombie and Case were coasting to re-election and more than just a couple of central committee members were seriously thinking of offering up Brian Schatz as our sacrificial offering against Linda. Look at how the political world has change in Hawaii in the last 100 days. It can still change even more. Remember that George Clooney move “The Perfect Storm”? It was about multiple hurricanes colliding; together they create a storm that’s even bigger than what each individual hurricane would generate on its own. Case created a hurricane by jumping into the US Senate race. If Neil jumps into the governor’s race, we can create that perfect storm for the Democratic Party and bring back the glory days of life without Linda Lingle.
Neil, I know you hate the fact that Ed Case has changed the dynamics of the ’06 election, but that’s life. You know this commentary makes sense, please give it some thought. To all of the Democrats getting this email, please consider talking to the congressman about it.
How about it Neil? Please reconsider.
Pau,
Hawaii Publis
Open Letter to Hawaii Democrats and Congressman Neil Abercrombie
OK, at the start of 2006, things were looking boring and bleak for us Democrats. But then Ed Case turned the whole political scene upside down. At a recent late-session meeting of several House Democrats (and at pretty much every Democrat fundraiser I’ve been to over the last several months), the buzz was all about who is backing Case, who is backing Akaka, and who’s going to declare for the US House before the filing deadline. But the big thing has been the buzz. This buzz is good for the party. It’s nerve wracking. It’s scary. But it’s also getting Democrats really excited.
The problem is that we don’t have good buzz about the governor’s race. The excitement about the US Senate race and the 2nd Congressional race is universal. But it is matched with a deafening silence amongst Democrats about the governor’s race. There should be, but there is no spill over. Yes, I know Brickwood has to smile and say Iwase has a chance. But let’s be honest with ourselves, in private no one – and I mean no one - is saying Randy has a prayer. Yes I know four years ago, people were saying Ed Case had almost no chance, but at least we were qualifying it with “almost.” This time, however, I don’t think Chinatown has even given Iwase a line. Absolutely no one is betting on him. You know things are bad when Hotel Street is giving Bev Harbin better odds than Iwase.
If you want to see the Democratic Party Chair get defensive, just ask him, “Who’s running for Lieutenant Governor?” (If you want to see Brickwood get real defensive, ask him, “Who do you support in Rhode Island’s elections?”) The conventional wisdom and talk of Chinatown betting line is that Lingle has a very weak running mate. No one thinks Duke Aiona has what it takes to win on his own, let alone lead Hawaii in 2010. But it is a sorry statement about how weak our party’s prospects are for Washington Place that no one is willing to take on Duke Aiona. The LG may be weak, but Publis is pretty sure he can beat a non-existent candidate.
This is the thing, with the Akaka-Case match up and the buzz in the 2nd Congressional, I now do think we have a chance against Linda Lingle. Last fall, when Neil Abercrombie was pondering challenging Lingle, it was a long shot. Neil did a poll, looked at the numbers - which were really bad - and decided to pass. Today, however, things are different. The excitement amongst Democrats is contagious. What was a long shot in October is still not a good shot today, but it is now a decent shot because of this buzz floating in the air.
But the problem for us Democrats is that we need someone “big” to take advantage of all of this energy. We need a first tier candidate to properly channel all of this excitement felt by Democrats into a good governor’s campaign. Other than Mufi Hannemann, the only one who could pull this off and properly tap into this buzz is our favorite Buffalo Bruiser and Manoa Maniac – Neil Abercrombie.
Folks, I’m talkin’ about a real potential for some real synergy here – yes I’m talkin’ about making 2 + 2 equal 5 without a Jeremy Harris budget analyst. But it only works if the whole team pulls together with the right equipment. I love Randy Iwase (I think I even voted for him when he ran for Mayor way back when), but he’s not the guy to do it. Neil Abercrombie is.
Neil Abercrombie deserves to give this governor’s race a second look. Abercrombie turns 68 next month, and if he waits his turn, he will never get a turn at state-wide office. The congressman himself made the case for needing seniority in Congress to get things done when he bowed out of the governor’s race on Halloween. He can’t wait much longer to take a crack at becoming a US Senator, and then build the seniority he says is needed in Washington when Abercrombie himself is now pushing 70. Things were different when Ed Case wasn’t trying to jump in line. But Ed has completely changed the political dynamics. In 2010 Lingle will be term limited - but it will be Mufi’s turn for Washington Place, not Neil’s. It’s 2006 or never Neil.
For all of the aspiring Democrats for the 1st Congressional District, keep in mind that if Neil doesn’t run for Governor this year and stays in the House, you may never get to run for Congress. If Neil says in DC as long as Akaka or Inouye plan on staying in DC – that is until age 86 - that’s another 18 years. Do the math, there might not be a vacancy in the 1st district until sometime in the year 2024. Put that in perspective, in 2024, baby-faces like Donovan Dela Cruz and Kimo Apana will be older than Linda Lingle is today. Looked from another angle some of our party faithful who have been waiting patiently for an open seat like, Donna Kim or Duke Bainum, will be in their late-60s or early-70s, well too late to START a congressional career.
Just think, 100 days ago, there was no primary for the US Senate, Abercrombie and Case were coasting to re-election and more than just a couple of central committee members were seriously thinking of offering up Brian Schatz as our sacrificial offering against Linda. Look at how the political world has change in Hawaii in the last 100 days. It can still change even more. Remember that George Clooney move “The Perfect Storm”? It was about multiple hurricanes colliding; together they create a storm that’s even bigger than what each individual hurricane would generate on its own. Case created a hurricane by jumping into the US Senate race. If Neil jumps into the governor’s race, we can create that perfect storm for the Democratic Party and bring back the glory days of life without Linda Lingle.
Neil, I know you hate the fact that Ed Case has changed the dynamics of the ’06 election, but that’s life. You know this commentary makes sense, please give it some thought. To all of the Democrats getting this email, please consider talking to the congressman about it.
How about it Neil? Please reconsider.
Pau,
Hawaii Publis
posted by HawaiiPublis at 8:33 PM
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