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Why Akaka Should Retire, October 2005

Open Letter to Hawaii Voters and Hawaii Democrats:

Senator Dan Akaka should retire next year. I do not make this statement lightly. Sen. Akaka is one of Hawaii’s most respected politicians and I have proudly cast my vote, contributed money and donated my time to help elect Akaka over the past three decades. Next year, however, Sen. Akaka will not only be 82 years old, but his retirement makes sense for the long-term future of both Hawaii and Hawaii Democratic Party.

THE SENIORITY FACTOR

When he turns 82 six weeks before election day, Sen. Akaka’s age will raise questions, but age alone should not disqualify him from seeking another six-year term in office. Heck, Strom Thurmond served South Carolina until he was 99. But Hawaii should consider if it really wants to be the only state in the entire nation sending two octogenarians to fill both of its U.S. Senate slots.

Sen. Dan Inouye, who like Sen. Akaka, turned 81 this fall is a venerable institution in our Aloha State. Indeed, some may joke, but it is practically true that the office of Hawaii’s senior senator is the largest single income producer for Hawaii after the tourism industry. It makes sense for Hawaii to keep Sen. Inouye in office as long as possible so he can continue to bring home the bacon to our islands.

But seniority is a bitch. It literally takes years, no decades, to build up seniority in Congress. While it makes sense to keep Inouye in the U.S. Senate as long as possible, does it makes sense for Hawaii to keep two U.S. Senators over the age of 80 in office? I proffer that the superior strategic decision for Hawaii would be to keep Inouye in office, but put in a young new freshman senator next year to start building seniority for Hawaii. It is a morbid, but inevitable reality that Inouye is human and will not live forever. We need someone in 2006 to start building that Holy Grail of seniority for our small state like Hawaii.

Now don’t get me wrong, I love Sen. Akaka. He is a man of tremendous character and exudes the spirit of aloha. That’s why I have consistently voted, contributed and campaigned for him. But in all honestly, unlike Sen. Inouye, Sen. Akaka is simply not widely regarded as one of the U.S. Senate’s “heavy weights.” Sen. Akaka has never acquired a reputation of some of the other 80+ senators like West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, the Senate’s foremost parliamentarian, or Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, the one other senator who can rival Sen. Inouye in pork. Sen. Akaka has had a fantastic run in Hawaii politics, but maybe its time for him to make way for a new generation of leadership.

The point here is that it makes strategic sense for Hawaii to have a new freshman senator to compliment Sen. Inouye in 2006 and start building seniority now.

DEMOCRATS WILL HOLD IN 2006

If Sen. Akaka retires next year, the Democrats will hold on to his seat. No Tom DeLay or Jesse Helms is going to suddenly get elected from Hawaii just because Akaka retires. The Democrats in Hawaii just have so many capable candidates who have the experience and are ready to succeed Akaka. Congressmen Neil Abercrombie and Ed Case are Hawaii’s most obvious choices. Abercrombie has built a solid and well-deserved pro-union reputation and fits in well with the Democratic Party establishment. He has been waiting patiently over 8 terms in the U.S. House for his turn in the Senate. Although Abercrombie is ideologically similar to Akaka, his scrappy attitude may work better in fighting the Republican majority in D.C. Case lacks the congressional record of Abercrombie, but he is hot right now coming off of a strong showing in the governor’s race and a landslide re-election victory. Case also comes with telegenic good looks, he has the perfect AJA spouse and his Hilo roots that makes a good winning combination. Rep. Case seems to me to strike the just right pro-environment, pro-choice, but fiscally conservative tone with Hawaii’s voters.

But Abercrombie and Case aren’t the only ones who can pick up the Akaka mantle for Hawaii Democrats. John Waihee and Mufi Hanneman are longer shots than Abercrombie or Case, but they can make a legitimate case that they should succeed Akaka. Having won three statewide elections as Lt. Governor and Governor, Waihee is one of only a few Democrats on the horizon to have won statewide office who wants to be a senator. He made need a little PR polish to overcome some lingering reputation that he was a wasteful big-spender, but that’s something a good commercial campaign can easily overcome. Hanneman is the tallest elected official in Hawaii. His height is outmatched only by a solid Iolani/Harvard resume and an outsized ambition. Hanneman has only been mayor of Honolulu for under a year, but he has thus far gotten off to a good start and he certainly has the drive to become a senator. The new mayor also has the most extensive campaign organization around of any Democrat to run for statewide office. (Indeed, but for Lingle, Hanneman has the best political operation in Hawaii.) Hanneman has the talent, ambition and political team to take him to the U.S. Senate now.

Should Abercrombie and Case make a senate bid, the Democrats have a plethora of excellent candidates to fill their spots. I see there are two sets of “triplets” that could become Congressmen. There’s the “Formers Triplets”: former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, former State Senator Matt Matsunaga and former Honolulu Councilmember Duke Bainum who all have run for higher office (and lost) and all could mount serious campaigns for Congress. Similarly, the Democrats are blessed with a number of capable state senators, Donna Kim, Colleen Hanabusa and Ron Menor who each could make a good statement that they should be sent to Washington. Hawaii Democrats even have very distant long shots like former news reporters Councilmember Nestor Garcia and State Rep. Glenn Wakai who have some degree of name recognition. Each of these individuals have very different personalities and traits, but each can make a good case for being a U.S. Representative.

We also shouldn’t forget about the outsiders that could make a bid for high office from Hawaii. Everyone loves the idea of Gen. Eric Shinseki and I think he would make an excellent senator or congressman, but for the fact that he lives mostly in Virginia. Former First Hawaii CEO Walter Dods would similarly make a great congressional representative, but I just think it would actually be a step down for Hawaii Business Magazine’s most influential person to become a senator.

The Republicans are also in a world of hurt and in no position to do anything in 2006. The national GOP is paralyzed by the problems with Tom Delay and Scooter Libby. The Hawaii GOP has Dalton Tanaonaka, Brian Blundell and Galen Fox. Count on the Republicans, however, getting their act together by 2008. The Delay-Tanonaka-Fox fun for Democrats will not last forever.

The point is that in 2006 Hawaii Democrats are ready to move and have a great crop of good candidates to move up to the Senate and House in Washington D.C. Politics is fickle, however, who knows what this will look like several years down the road. Democrats know what we have now, I say make the move now.

THE REPUBLICANS HAVE NO ONE

What about the Hawaii GOP? All you can say about Hawaii’s Republicans is that they have one superstar – Gov. Linda Lingle, and one rising star – Honolulu City Councilmember Charles Djou. That’s it. Once more, the GOP is reeling from body blows both nationally and locally ranging from the Delay and Libby criminal charges to the Tanonaka, Blundell and Fox criminal cases.

If she actually ran for the U.S. Senate, Lingle would be a formidable candidate. Say what you will about her administration (all sizzle and no steak), but Linda Lingle has shown that she is a tough campaigner, a proven fundraiser and like it or not, the people of Hawaii like her. Ten years ago, I would have said you would be crazy to think that Hawaii would ever elect a Missouri born, haole, Jewish, divorced, woman from a used car salesman family as governor. It is a testament to Linda Lingle’s talents as a candidate that she had gotten so far in Hawaii politics.

The thing is, Lingle won’t run for the U.S. Senate in 2006. Lingle has amassed a war chest of over $2 mil. for her re-election bid, she would have to give up that war chest and start from zero if she now switched to run for the U.S. Senate. She is also looking really good for re-election given that the Democrats can’t seem to find anyone to run against her. As a voter I laugh and as I Democrat I cry over the fact that Democratic Party Chair Brickwood Galuteria had to fly to the Big Island to try to talk to Republican Mayor Harry Kim to run against Lingle. Abercrombie made a huge statement that Lingle is simply unbeatable with his decision not to challenge her. It’s a big statement at how strong Lingle looks for re-election given that all of those hot Democrats for the senate and congress aren’t running against her next year. Even if there is an open seat for the senate, why would Lingle switch from a near sure thing at re-election as governor to go for a gamble at the senate against Abercrombie or Case or Hanneman? There is simply no reason for Lingle to run for anything but governor in 2006.

Similarly, Charles Djou is an up and coming star for Hawaii’s beleaguered Republicans, but he may not be ready in 2006. Djou has a unique combination of traits that together may someday make him a superstar for the Hawaii GOP. He is a bright, articulate and good-looking local kid. But there are plenty of Democrats who have that – Donna Kim and Matt Matsunaga come to mind. Djou also comes with a gold-plated Punahou/Ivy League resume. The Democrats have a bunch of candidates like Hanneman whose resumes are at least as impressive. As an Army Reserve officer, other than Gen. Shineki, Djou is the only upcoming potential candidate who has worn a military uniform – something that may be increasingly respected as thousands of local Hawaii troops start returning from Iraq. Finally, Djou is married, never divorced, and has an attractive young family. Other than Ron Menor, none of the other Democrats have that trait. (This says more about the brutal nature of modern politics than Djou or Menor, but that’s another story). But Djou is the only candidate to have unique combination of all of these traits and that could make Djou the Hawaii Republicans’ future top vote getter. But Djou’s Achilles’ heel is that he lacks experience. Djou is like a new first round draft choice in pro-sports. He shows tremendous promise, but with only one term in the legislature and one in the City Council, Djou is largely untested in the major leagues. Who knows if Djou is ready for the big time in 2006?

Outside of Lingle and Djou the Republicans have no one worth mentioning. Lingle’s running mate still needs way too much seasoning. Maybe he can grow into the job, but he is definitely not ready for prime time in 2006. Aside from Lingle and Djou, the Republicans do not have any candidates of the same caliber as Bainum or Kim or Matsunaga, let alone an Abercrombie or Case or Hanneman. All of the rest of the GOP field is basically a bunch of conservative haoles from the Mainland who play well in Windward Oahu, Hawaii Kai, and Texas.

The point here is that in 2006 the Republicans simply aren’t ready for any big moves. Lingle is too busy running for governor and Djou is still just a rookie. On the other hand, give it a few more years with another Akaka term and a far different picture emerges. In a few years a term limited Lingle will start looking for another big office to run for and Djou may well have gotten that experience he needs to live up to his promise of becoming a star player in Hawaii politics.

2006 IS THE YEAR FOR HAWAII AND HAWAII DEMOCRATS TO MAKE A MOVE

The bottom line is that it makes little sense for Hawaii to have two senators over 80 representing us. If we wait, then Hawaii could face the prospect of two very junior senators representing our small state in the very near future. No more federal appropriation gravy train for Hawaii.

Next year, it makes sense for Hawaii Democrats to install a Sen. Abercrombie or Sen. Case or Sen. Hanneman – all of whom are fully capable and eagerly waiting to step up to the job. In 2006 Hawaii Democrats are ready to put in a Congressman Bainum or Congresswoman Kim to replace Abercrombie and a Congressman Matsunaga or Congressman Menor to replace Case. If Hawaii Democrats do what we always do and ask everyone to just wait their turn, in a few years Democrats could instead be staring at a U.S. Senator Linda Lingle and a Congressman Charles Djou.

Dan Akaka has served Hawaii well. He deserves to be commended for all of his work for our state. But 2006 is the year for Hawaii to elect a new U.S. Senator and usher in a new slate of leaders. For the good of Hawaii, for the good of the Democratic Party, I humbly ask Senator Akaka to consider retiring next year.

Sincerely,

Publius

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