THE FEDERAL RACES IN HAWAII, JULY 2006
All of the major sporting magazines are coming out with their pre-season football polls and predictions and Publis does the same for Hawaii politics with what information I’ve found out. (For what its worth, Publis is placing a bet that UH will have a 9-4 season.) Earlier this month, the Honolulu Advertiser came out with a poll on the major Federal races in Hawaii. Publis is familiar with at least five other polls that have been placed recently and actually seen three of these. The numbers are pretty similar to what the Advertiser reported with a few discrepencies here and there. But Publis has always contended that the best predictor is and continues to be the Chinatown betting parlors.
RACES YOU’D EXPECT
This year is a little strange as Hawaii voters don’t seem particularly pissed off and there doesn’t seem to be major hot button issues floating around, but there are still lots of major races. The US Senate race according to Chinatown is a lot closer than what the Advertiser poll suggests. Akaka may have a very narrow edge, but its just that, very narrow. The governor’s race is still expected to be a Lingle blow-out. Indeed, as stated in an earlier commentary, Chinatown punters have given up even giving Randy Iwase a line. Instead, all betting is now just on the size of the Lingle victory lap. Chinatown is giving 50/50 odds to an 18 point Lingle win. What’s really distressing if you’re a Democrat like me is that Chinatown appears to be giving Lingle a 1-in-3 chance of besting Iwase by over 30 points. That would give her the largest gubernatorial win in the history of the state. Publis feels, just like the USC v. UH game last year, if Iwase can just manage to beat the spread, chalk it up as a win. Unfortunately USC went on to completely blow out UH at Aloha Stadium last year and Linda may do the same to Randy this year.
DEM. CD2 RACE
What is really interesting is that Chinatown punters are offering a trifecta betting option for the Democratic Primary for the 2nd Congressional.
For those of you not familiar with horseracing, a trifecta is a particular type of bet that is very difficult to win, but it yields higher returns. To successfully win a ‘pure trifecta’ bet, you need to specify the horses that finish in the top three spots in the exact order in which they finish. To win a ‘box trifecta’ you simply need to specify the three horses that will come in the top three, irrespective of the order.
Chinatown betters are giving a good insight into how things are shaping up. Based on trifecta bets, it is clear that there are leading horses, dark horses and dead horses in the Dem.’s 2nd Congressional race. The leading horse are Mazie Hirono and Matt Matsunaga. Virtually every box trifecta bet includes Hirono’s name. Matsunaga looks good as his names seems to be included in almost all, box trifecta bets. Now comes the interesting part. The bets are pretty spread out for the third name between Clayton Hee, Nestor Garcia and Colleen Hanabusa. Hee, Garcia and Hanabusa are clearly the dark horses who are getting selected in trifecta bets, but none consistently. It seems that Chinatown is looking at these politicians as the dark horses who are unlikely to win, but might pull off an upset if say one of the front runners pulls (or should I say grabs) a Brian Blundell. There is no question that the dead horses are Gary Hoosier, Ron Menor and Brian Schatz. There are just no bets on these legislators. Publis hears some Chinatown punters may even soon start a betting line for the last place finisher between Hooiser, Menor and Schatz.
THE CASE-KAWANANAKOA OR AKAKA-HOUGE FACTOR
The other interesting dynamic based on looking at the various polls out there and the Chinatown betting line is the often overlooked Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional. Publis thinks Kawananakoa’s money bags will purchase the primary and even possibly the general election for him. What’s really fascinating, however, is watching how the bets are flowing between the Dem. US Senate primary and the Republican 2nd Congressional primary. Everyone knows a high turn out in the GOP primary that attracts independent swing voters probably hurts Case as Case does well with independents, but how does the dynamic within the GOP primary affect Case and Akaka?
On paper, Bob Hogue and Ed Case look like a match. Both are fairly moderate, mild-mannered haoles. Similarly, Dan Akaka and Quinten Kawananakoa have some commonalities on paper, as both are part-Hawaiian and have lots of money their opponents don’t have. What is truly interesting, however, are the odds for the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional district appear to be tracking the Democratic primary for the US Senate. It appears that voters attracted to Hogue are also attracted to Case, and voters attracted to Kawananakoa are also often attracted to Akaka. But here’s the trick, Hawaii voters can pick only one partisan ballot in the primary. Thus, a vote for Hogue in the GOP primary appears to take away a likely vote for Case in the Democratic primary, and vica versa. Likewise, a vote for Akaka or Kawananakoa takes away a probable vote for the other. Akaka supporters should be pulling for a high-turn out GOP primary where Hogue does well. Case should similarly be pulling for a low-turn out GOP primary and a Kawananakoa win. The Chinatown odds almost perfectly mirror this relationship. As Case’s odds go up, Hogue goes down, conversely when Kawanakakoa gets better odds, Akaka’s numbers almost perfectly go down in the opposite direction. Publis isn’t sure if the Hogue/Kawananakoa race is the driver that will alter the outcome of the Akaka/Case race or if it’s the other way around. Either way, it is very interesting.
Now comes the conspiracy theory – what will Linda Lingle do? For Lingle, things work much better for her with an 82 year old Dan Akaka keeping a Senate seat warm for her after she finishes her victory lap to a second term as governor rather than a 53 year old Ed Case who will be around for several re-election terms. Lingle could slightly tilt things for Akaka by urging GOP and independent voters to stay in the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional. But Lingle could very cleverly give a big tilt in the Democratic primary election for Akaka by helping Hogue. Publis will be watching very closely to see what the gov does.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Publis hopes you enjoy this election season. If not, like Michelle Wie looking for a win, there’s always the next one to look forward to. For Publis the dream races in the future to look for are: (I) Inouye’s Senate Seat – Lingle v. Hannemann. Admit it, if you’ve read this commentary this far then I know you’re like Publis and can’t wait for Lingle and Hannemann to take their fight out into the streets. Enough with this silly pussy-foot passive-aggressive crap these two’ve been doing for the past several months, let’s get the fight on in the open! (II) Governor – Abercrombie v. Carlisle. After Hawaii elects (and re-elects) a Jewish haole woman from Missouri, will Hawaii turn to a bearded haole guy from New York or a mustached haole guy from New Jersey? (III) Mayor – Djou v. Dela Cruz. Oh yeah, this is the one Publis eagerly looks forward to. Will voters turn to the intelligent and articulate pro-business whiz-kid from Hawaii Kai or instead prefer an affable and friendly pro-labor local boy from Wahiawa? Aloha.
Pau,
Publis Hawaii
All of the major sporting magazines are coming out with their pre-season football polls and predictions and Publis does the same for Hawaii politics with what information I’ve found out. (For what its worth, Publis is placing a bet that UH will have a 9-4 season.) Earlier this month, the Honolulu Advertiser came out with a poll on the major Federal races in Hawaii. Publis is familiar with at least five other polls that have been placed recently and actually seen three of these. The numbers are pretty similar to what the Advertiser reported with a few discrepencies here and there. But Publis has always contended that the best predictor is and continues to be the Chinatown betting parlors.
RACES YOU’D EXPECT
This year is a little strange as Hawaii voters don’t seem particularly pissed off and there doesn’t seem to be major hot button issues floating around, but there are still lots of major races. The US Senate race according to Chinatown is a lot closer than what the Advertiser poll suggests. Akaka may have a very narrow edge, but its just that, very narrow. The governor’s race is still expected to be a Lingle blow-out. Indeed, as stated in an earlier commentary, Chinatown punters have given up even giving Randy Iwase a line. Instead, all betting is now just on the size of the Lingle victory lap. Chinatown is giving 50/50 odds to an 18 point Lingle win. What’s really distressing if you’re a Democrat like me is that Chinatown appears to be giving Lingle a 1-in-3 chance of besting Iwase by over 30 points. That would give her the largest gubernatorial win in the history of the state. Publis feels, just like the USC v. UH game last year, if Iwase can just manage to beat the spread, chalk it up as a win. Unfortunately USC went on to completely blow out UH at Aloha Stadium last year and Linda may do the same to Randy this year.
DEM. CD2 RACE
What is really interesting is that Chinatown punters are offering a trifecta betting option for the Democratic Primary for the 2nd Congressional.
For those of you not familiar with horseracing, a trifecta is a particular type of bet that is very difficult to win, but it yields higher returns. To successfully win a ‘pure trifecta’ bet, you need to specify the horses that finish in the top three spots in the exact order in which they finish. To win a ‘box trifecta’ you simply need to specify the three horses that will come in the top three, irrespective of the order.
Chinatown betters are giving a good insight into how things are shaping up. Based on trifecta bets, it is clear that there are leading horses, dark horses and dead horses in the Dem.’s 2nd Congressional race. The leading horse are Mazie Hirono and Matt Matsunaga. Virtually every box trifecta bet includes Hirono’s name. Matsunaga looks good as his names seems to be included in almost all, box trifecta bets. Now comes the interesting part. The bets are pretty spread out for the third name between Clayton Hee, Nestor Garcia and Colleen Hanabusa. Hee, Garcia and Hanabusa are clearly the dark horses who are getting selected in trifecta bets, but none consistently. It seems that Chinatown is looking at these politicians as the dark horses who are unlikely to win, but might pull off an upset if say one of the front runners pulls (or should I say grabs) a Brian Blundell. There is no question that the dead horses are Gary Hoosier, Ron Menor and Brian Schatz. There are just no bets on these legislators. Publis hears some Chinatown punters may even soon start a betting line for the last place finisher between Hooiser, Menor and Schatz.
THE CASE-KAWANANAKOA OR AKAKA-HOUGE FACTOR
The other interesting dynamic based on looking at the various polls out there and the Chinatown betting line is the often overlooked Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional. Publis thinks Kawananakoa’s money bags will purchase the primary and even possibly the general election for him. What’s really fascinating, however, is watching how the bets are flowing between the Dem. US Senate primary and the Republican 2nd Congressional primary. Everyone knows a high turn out in the GOP primary that attracts independent swing voters probably hurts Case as Case does well with independents, but how does the dynamic within the GOP primary affect Case and Akaka?
On paper, Bob Hogue and Ed Case look like a match. Both are fairly moderate, mild-mannered haoles. Similarly, Dan Akaka and Quinten Kawananakoa have some commonalities on paper, as both are part-Hawaiian and have lots of money their opponents don’t have. What is truly interesting, however, are the odds for the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional district appear to be tracking the Democratic primary for the US Senate. It appears that voters attracted to Hogue are also attracted to Case, and voters attracted to Kawananakoa are also often attracted to Akaka. But here’s the trick, Hawaii voters can pick only one partisan ballot in the primary. Thus, a vote for Hogue in the GOP primary appears to take away a likely vote for Case in the Democratic primary, and vica versa. Likewise, a vote for Akaka or Kawananakoa takes away a probable vote for the other. Akaka supporters should be pulling for a high-turn out GOP primary where Hogue does well. Case should similarly be pulling for a low-turn out GOP primary and a Kawananakoa win. The Chinatown odds almost perfectly mirror this relationship. As Case’s odds go up, Hogue goes down, conversely when Kawanakakoa gets better odds, Akaka’s numbers almost perfectly go down in the opposite direction. Publis isn’t sure if the Hogue/Kawananakoa race is the driver that will alter the outcome of the Akaka/Case race or if it’s the other way around. Either way, it is very interesting.
Now comes the conspiracy theory – what will Linda Lingle do? For Lingle, things work much better for her with an 82 year old Dan Akaka keeping a Senate seat warm for her after she finishes her victory lap to a second term as governor rather than a 53 year old Ed Case who will be around for several re-election terms. Lingle could slightly tilt things for Akaka by urging GOP and independent voters to stay in the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional. But Lingle could very cleverly give a big tilt in the Democratic primary election for Akaka by helping Hogue. Publis will be watching very closely to see what the gov does.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Publis hopes you enjoy this election season. If not, like Michelle Wie looking for a win, there’s always the next one to look forward to. For Publis the dream races in the future to look for are: (I) Inouye’s Senate Seat – Lingle v. Hannemann. Admit it, if you’ve read this commentary this far then I know you’re like Publis and can’t wait for Lingle and Hannemann to take their fight out into the streets. Enough with this silly pussy-foot passive-aggressive crap these two’ve been doing for the past several months, let’s get the fight on in the open! (II) Governor – Abercrombie v. Carlisle. After Hawaii elects (and re-elects) a Jewish haole woman from Missouri, will Hawaii turn to a bearded haole guy from New York or a mustached haole guy from New Jersey? (III) Mayor – Djou v. Dela Cruz. Oh yeah, this is the one Publis eagerly looks forward to. Will voters turn to the intelligent and articulate pro-business whiz-kid from Hawaii Kai or instead prefer an affable and friendly pro-labor local boy from Wahiawa? Aloha.
Pau,
Publis Hawaii
posted by HawaiiPublis at 2:53 AM
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