Mufi Is Still a Bully, July 2008

Honolulu’s mayor has an amazing ability to make enemies.

Hanneman’s has every major issue in local politics breaking for him. Mufi’s Train is chugging along nicely with lots of union support. (Publis doesn’t care what the mayor says, local people will forever call the rail Mufi’s Train.) Hannemann’s faction at the City Council is firmly in control of things and the council is pretty much doing everything and anything the mayor asks for. At the Legislature, Mufi has the legislative leadership eating out of his hand. (Isn’t it fun to see House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell ready to jump up at Mufi’s every beck and call – together now, let’s all say Hannemann‑Caldwell in 2010?) The mayor is sitting on a multi-million dollar campaign war chest. Best of all, Hannemann has no real opponent for re-election. (OK, there’s this Greek guy with a name no local person can pronounce running against Hannemann, but come on, Panos is going to be chicken feed for the Mufi machine.)

Yet Mufi still has yearning to find a ways to get people to hate him and come unglued.

Let’s start with the Stop Rail Now people. They start getting close to putting a question on Mufi’s Train on the ballot. Hannemann lashes out by criticizing Miss Texas and saying mainland big oil is behind all of this. What?!

That prompts Former Governor Ben Cayetano to chime in that Mufi really should stick to fighting for his message, not attacking the messenger. That gets Mufi to launch into a very petty attack on Vickie Cayetano. What?!

Equally bizarre, UH Prof. Panos Prevedouros jumps into the race for mayor. This causes the Mufi to go totally nuts. Rather than being gracious (knowing full well he will totally crush this uppity Greek) Mufi instead growls into the TV cameras and blames Cliff Slater and Charles Djou. What?!

Governor Lingle then decides to have her fun with Mufi. She declares to the Star Bulletin that she may sign the rail petition. That causes the mayor to declare that Mufi’s Train is actually Linda’s Train. What?!

Perhaps the mayor needs to just take some medication and calm down. Publis, like most local people, likes WHAT Hannemann is doing, but absolutely can’t stand WHO Mufi is.

With Inouye off in newly married bliss and spending more time in Los Angeles than Hawaii, Mufi is the single most powerful politician in the state right now. At Honolulu Hale, Hannemann’s word is God’s word - no one dares to question the mayor. (OK, Charles Djou tries to, but Mufi just orders Barbara Marshall & Co. to pound him down.) Everything is going exactly as Hannemann wants. Yet, at his core, Mufi is still a bully.

Maybe it’s the quiet buzz Hannemann is hearing that’s making Mufi-the-Bully come out. When Publis attended Abercrombie’s very well attended (and very profitable) fundraiser last week, there were more than a few Democrats whispering about Mufi’s awful temper and Hannemann’s total inability to get along with anyone. These local Democrats all agree – in 2008 Neil is going to win re-election and so is Mufi. But in 2010 things will be very different. Gov. Abercrombie? Yeah, probably. Hannemann for anything other than the crazy house – don’t bet on it.

Pau,

Publis Hawaii

Congressman Gabbard, October 2007

Congressman Mike Gabbard. Sounds too bizarre to believe? Well, Publis tosses out there that this is a real possibility in the near future.

Consider the dynamics. Hawaii is the only state with two senators over the age of 80. Case tried to do something about that, but Hawaii voters simply decided he didn’t make a good enough case. What that does mean is there will be some turn over in Hawaii’s congressional delegation sometime soon. Maybe 2008, maybe 2010, maybe 2012, but unless Inouye or Akaka have some special youth potion we all don’t know about, it will happen.

Now, when it does happen, you can count on another bench clearing brawl for that US Senate seat. Pretty much everyone in town is betting on Ed Case, Neil Abercrombie, Mufi Hannemann, Linda Lingle, and maybe Mazie Hirono to scrap it out for the Senate seat. But how about for Abercrombie’s, and maybe Hirono’s, US House seat(s)?

Well, we will still see a big donnybrook over any open US House seat. Count on several senators, councilmembers and other assorted political wannabes running. Just look at the 2002 special election for Patsy Mink’s seat and the open race for Ed Case’s seat in 2006. Both attracted 10+ “serious” candidates.

What it takes to win in such a wide open field is not getting 51% of the vote, but being able to hold on to a solid 25% or 30% of the vote and you win the Democratic Primary. Win the Dem. primary in Hawaii and you become a Congressman. That’s what Ed Case did in 2002 and what Mazie Hirono did in 2006. (Indeed, check the record, Mazie won the Democratic primary with just under 22% of the vote.)

What Case and Hirono had going for them was solid name ID through major state-wide campaigns. But who will take it in 2008 or 2010? Unless there is some radical change up, there aren’t any other major Dems. who have run for major state-wide office. Instead we have a bunch of lesser known candidates.

Who can hold on to a solid, rabid base and collect 30% of the vote? Publis is currently giving that nod to the “New” Democrat State Senator Mike Gabbard. Gabbard ran for Congress against Ed Case in 2004 campaigning on the theme that Case was too liberal for Hawaii. Gabbard is probably more disliked by the Democratic base than any other Democrat in Hawaii. But in a wide open congressional race, the Democratic base will simply not be united. When the Democrat base is united in a primary, they can re-elect Akaka; when the base is divided, weird things happen like making Ed Case a Congressman. In a future congressional race, the Democratic base will divide its vote between already run losers like Duke Bainum, Nestor Garcia, Brian Schatz and Ron Menor, and soon to be running losers like Donna Kim, Kirk Caldwell and Will Espero.

Another thing to think about is that the Democratic Party has what appears to be a coming fight in a US House primary between the haoles (Bainum, Schatz, Caldwell) and the Filipinos (Mercado Kim, Espero, Garcia, Menor). This will make it all the more possible for a Polynesian candidate like Gabbard to break through.

Mike Gabbard is different. He has a rabid base on his own with his right-wing social agenda. This is a solid base that will follow him in a Democratic primary. As scary as it seems, short of Abercrombie not seeking re-election and allowing the Democratic base to unite behind Neil, Gabbard is simply in the best position to grab 25+% of the vote in a Democratic primary to win. There are a lot of Democrats who other Democrats like, but unlike any other Democrat, Gabbard has a (some say fanatical) following loyal to him and only to him. Maybe Bainum can stop Gabbard with his check book – but Publis thinks Duke will have to start actually living in Hawaii again soon and hope HawaiiReporter.com goes under before making a realistic run for Congress.

So yes folks, get use to the idea of a Hawaii Congressman Mike Gabbard coming soon. Then again, the alternative of a Congressman Charles Djou is now looking a lot better.

Pau,

Publis Hawaii

Witch-Hunt Colleen & the 2007 Session, May 2007

The 2007 Legislature was a big disappointment. There were moments when the legislature looked like it would take up the mantle of great issues, but in the end the 2007 session will be memorable only for its witch hunts.

For a flashing instant the Hawaii legislature appeared poised to live up to it progressive traditions and pass a civil unions bill – but Rep. Tommy Waters, the House Judiciary Chair, killed that off. Then for a brief instant, it looked like Hawaii would finally pass a death with dignity bill. Then Rep. Waters killed that too. Everything was dead in the Waters so to speak. With not just a majority, but an overwhelming three-quarters Democrat majority in both chambers, Publis asks why do we need so many Democrats if these Democrats can’t muster the guts to pass a civil unions or death with dignity bill?

So, what did the legislature do this pass year? Pass meaningful broad based tax relief with a $700 mil. surplus? Nope. STEM? Well, o.k., it did pass something to do with “innovation” – but like the new Diet Pepsi Challenge, Publis puts out its challenge to ask any 10 random Hawaii voters what the heck STEM is – our bet is that 0 out of 10 Hawaii voters will have a clue. Publis is sure that the legislative leadership will recite a whole bunch of good things they think did in 2007. But again, the Publis challenge is to ask 10 random Hawaii voters and chances are not one Hawaii voter will come up with recalling anything remotely close to what any of the legislative leaders say.

What will a random selection of Hawaii voters come up with? If voters can recall anything about the 2007 legislature it will be about the witch hunts for Glenn Kim, Iwalani White and Peter Young. Pretty much, that is all the average Hawaii voter will remember from the 2007 session. That of course means the State House did absolutely nothing, but compared to the State Senate, that’s not that bad.

Sen. Clayton Hee, brother-in-law of the aforementioned Rep. Waters, got things started by trying to smear Glenn Kim for a judicial appointment. Interestingly, Hee decided to give a pass to mainland haole (and Publis think he even has blue eyes) Mark Rectenwald for the much more important post of Chief Judge of the Intermediate Court of Appeals. Instead Hee opts to go after local-boy Glenn Kim, a decorated Vietnam Vet and Harvard grad. Needless to say, Hee missed. Sen. Willie Espero, however, was more successful in bagging the head of Iwalani White. Then Sen. Russell Kokubon was really successful in managing a kangaroo court to bag Peter Young.

All of this was done under the watchful eye of the new Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. In the past Publis has been impressed by Hanabusa’s intellect and her akamai wits. This is what nearly helped her win a congressional seat last year and propelled her to the Senate Presidency. But Hanabusa also has a dark side – a clear penchant for witch hunting. As a freshman senator, it was Hanabusa who lead the charge to oust Margery Bronster as Attorney General. She convinced her four other fellow freshman senators to join her in the charge to get Bronster’s head. Hanabusa was ultimately successful in ousting Bronster and the voters then promptly punished all of the freshmen senators who followed Hanabusa by voting all of them out of office.

Publis even takes a bit of sorrow in noting that Hanabusa got tagged for Rep. John Karimitsu’s stupid idea of buying a private jet for legislators to fly in style between the islands. Life is unfair, this was Air(head)-Karimitsu’s idea, but Hanabusa got the blame. Anytime Hanabusa ever runs for higher office in the future, look for the Air-Karimatsu jet to rear its head. But look on the bright side, legislators are now getting big fat raises.

In 2007, Publis is disappointed that witch-hunt Hanabusa decided to make a return visit. Rather than lead with her intellect, Hanabusa this year lead with her dark side. The witch hunting has clearly damaged Hanabusa’s reputation. A few months ago, Hanabusa’s stock was on the rise and Chinatown had her as one of the most likely individuals to put the word “governor” in front of her name in 2010. Things are not over yet, but after the 2007 session, let’s just say Chinatown has Hanabusa’s stock way down. That bet on a Governor Case looks much better and a Governor Hannemann bet now looks really good. (Publis notes that interestingly on the GOP side there are still no takers for a bet on a Governor Aiona. See below for the latest on all Chinatown odds.) Right now, after this year’s session, Hanabusa appears likely to follow the great career trajectory of previous esteemed Senate Presidents Bobby Bunda, Norman Mizuguchi, and Jimmy Aki. That is, Hanabusa has now reached the high point of her political career. That may be a little harsh as it is still early, but Publis is not advising any bets on Hanabusa unless something dramatic happens very soon.

Pau,

Publis Hawaii

PS – OK for you punters out there, here are the latest odds Publis has compiled from the bookies on Hotel Street. As a general statement, 2010 looks really good for the Democrats to retake Washington Place. The clear front runners is Mufi Hannemann for Governor, with Ed Case in second. Donovan Dela Cruz is the bet for Lt. Governor with Donna Kim, Brian Schatz, and Kirk Caldwell far behind. Dela Cruz and Donna Kim make the most political sense as they ethnically fit with all of the leading Democrats: Hannemann, Case and Abercrombie. On the other hand, a Case-Caldwell or Abercrombie-Schatz ticket makes as much sense as a Hirono-Matsunaga ticket in Hawaii’s ethnic politics game. For the record, Publis is pulling for a Hannemann-Dela Cruz ticket. This would finally give us some real fun like the good ol’ days when the Gov and LG actually fought with one another. Enough of this gushy Lingle-Aiona love-fest crap. Who can forget the good times when we had with Quinn-Kealoha or Ariyoshi-King or the epic Burns-Gill fights? Then again, at this same stage the last time there was an open seat for governor looming, the Chinatown odds makers had a Harris-Yoshimura ticket winning it all. Nothing like a spending spree and a drunk driving accident to wreck all of that.

Just a reminder, the numbers below are odds not polling numbers. Odds don’t just reflect popularity. A large portion of the odds are a reflection of bookie’s bets on if a particular candidate will even run for the office. Thus, for example, Publis thinks Abercrombie’s odds and certainly Dodd’s odds would be way higher if they actually committed to run. But Abercrombie is probably slightly discounted and Dodds heavily discounted on if either would run for Gov.

GOVERNOR
Hannemann 1:3
Case 1:4
Abercrombie 1:7
Carlisle 1:9
Hanabusa 1:16
Djou 1:18
Kim (Donna) 1:31
Dodds 1:38
Kim (Harry) 1:50

LG
Dela Cruz 2:5
Kim (Donna) 1:10
Schatz 1:14
Caldwell 1:17
Finnegann 1:29
Espero 1:40
Shimabokuro 1:44
Kane 1:50
Hee 1:50
Garcia 1:65

The World of Mufi, Feb. 2007

Welcome to the world of Mufi. Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is on a roll. If you want to see the future of Hawaii politics, look no further than the big corner office at City Hall.

As a candidate for mayor, Mufi pledged that he would govern in a fiscally prudent manner after years of “extravagant” spending on sexy feel good projects by Jeremy Harris. Hannemann’s campaign mantra was: do we need it, can we afford it, can we maintain it. It worked. Along with a helpful last minute web story on Duke Bainum’s wife (delivered ironically by Sen. Sam Slom’s girlfriend), Hannemann won his election as mayor in 2004 by just a mere 1% of the vote.

With a narrow majority and a mandate for fiscal restraint, Publis is impressed at the way Hannemann managed to break pretty much all of his promises, get everything he wants and remain very popular.

As soon as he got into office, Mufi immediately rammed through what even his supporters say is the largest public works project in Hawaii history. You have to give credit to Mufi, he convinced a reluctant legislature to authorize Hawaii’s largest tax increase. Then, one would normally think Gov. Linda Lingle would stand up to Mufi, but she too knuckled under and gave Mufi what he wanted with a rail tax increase. Finally, the City Council just stood by in awe and gave Mufi pretty much everything he wanted on rail.

Topping all of that off, after having his way with rail, the mayor then got councilmembers to dump his arch nemesis, Donovan Dela Cruz as Chair of the Council. It was as if the council not only decided to give in to Mufi, but even paid for dinner, brought the condom and cleaned up afterward too. Now if Hannemann can just find a way to muzzle Councilmember Charles Djou he can get total control over what is rapidly becoming his personal fiefdom at Honolulu Hale.

But let’s not stop there. Hannemann has produced record breaking budgets. He has yet to produce a City budget smaller than any of Harris’ so-called “extravagant” budgets. Hannemann has also repeatedly stood for raising taxes and lashes out at councilmembers who bring up ideas for cutting real property taxes.

Everyone says Hawaii politics stinks. But no one seems be able to smell the 50 million gallons of raw sewage that was dumped on Waikiki beach on Hannamann’s watch. (Former Kauai Mayor Mary Anne Kusaka must wish she was drinking what Mufi is taking after reading the Kaloko Dam report.)

Yet it is clear the people (or at least the press) love Mufi and no one cares about his campaign promises. The news media? Publis gives credit to former KHON reporter and Hannemann press secretary, Bill Brennan, for getting the press to kowtow to the mayor’s message. Watching the local media question Hannemann is like watching the China People’s Daily scrutinize the communist party general secretary in Beijing. It is as if reporters have come to believe Hannemann walks on water. (Publis even heard through the grapevine that there was a prayer/Mufi-love-in service at Kawaihao Church a few weeks ago. Apparently the theme of the service was to pray for the holy trinity of God, Jesus and Mufi. With the mayor on his A-game, Publis wouldn’t doubt if Hannemann asked why he was ranked third in the prayer order.)

Even better for us Democrats, however, Mufi is the first local Dem to actually cow Hawaii’s normally savvy governor. In a food fight over the homeless, Hannemann pushed Lingle to take a look at this issue by kicking out a bunch of homeless people from Ala Moana Park in the pouring rain. Mufi then even mocked the governor by singing to her on the phone in front of reporters from his mayoral office that she won’t return his calls. Yes the mayor intimidates people (can we say bully?), but even Lingle just stands there, takes it and the people are applauding.

Hannemann has defined himself as the guy who gets things done his way. He is the man who can make you the offer you can’t refuse. (Ask new Council Chair Barbara Marshall.) If you need something, forget about talking to the legislature or the governor, talk to the big man, Honolulu’s new godfather - Mufi.

Who’s the most powerful politician in Hawaii? OK, Dan Inouye. But, who’s the second most powerful? Publis hands that title, for today, to first-term Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. Publis cautions, however, before Hannemann gets too comfortable with being the crown prince of Hawaii politics, just remember that Jeremy Harris (and Frank Fasi before him) at different points looked as powerful as Mufi does today. (Also don’t forget that the mob boss usually gets whacked by the end of the movie.) But for today, Publis extends a warm aloha greeting to all Hawaii residents to the Kingdom of Hannemann. Long live Mufi (for now)!

Pau,

Publis

Be sure to visit all of the blog posting for Publis at: http://hawaiipublis.blogspot.com/

Publis’ 2006 Politician Awards, Jan. 2007

As the 2007 Legislature convenes, Publis takes time to reflect on watching politics unfold in our Aloha State in 2006. We give a special thanks to Ed Case for making what would have been a particularly boring election year into a mildly interesting one. We also have to give our customary thanks to the Board of Education candidates for, as usual, giving us lots of comedy fodder. Below are Publis’ politician awards for 2006. May 2007 be at least as interesting.

Biggest Sacrificial Lamb of 2006
Randy Iwase
Runner Up: Cynthia Thielen

Most Interesting New Politician of the Year
Kim Coco Iwamoto
Runner Up: Kris DeRego

Biggest Winner after Losing an Election
New Senate President Colleen Hanabusa
Runner Up: Sen. Clayton Hee

Biggest Loser after Winning an Election
Rep. Dwight Takamine
Runner Up: Rep. Sylvia Luke
Honorable Mention: Rep. Scott Saiki

Dumbest Decision of the Year to Attempt to Move Up
Congressman Ed Case
Runner Up: Every other candidate for CD2 not named Hirono or Hanabusa

Smartest Decision of the Year Not to Move Up
Mayor Harry Kim
Runner Up: Councilmember Charles Djou

Biggest Comeback of the Year
Sen. Mike Gabbard
Runner Up: Rep. Gene Ward

Worst Comeback Attempt of the Year
Kimo Apana
Runners Up: Tie between BOE Candidates and Frm. Reps. Terrence Tom, Bob McDermott and Brian Yamane

Biggest Winner After Opposing Mufi on Rail
New Council Chair Barbara Marshall

Biggest Loser After Supporting Mufi on Rail
Councilmember Donovan Dela Cruz
Runner Up: Councilmember Ann Kobayashi

Most Happy with Akaka Re-election
Gov. Linda Lingle
Runner Up: Congressman Neil Abercrombie

Most Happy with Lingle Re-election
Mayor Mufi Hannemann
Runner Up: Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona

Be sure to visit all of the blog posting for Publis at: http://hawaiipublis.blogspot.com/

Pau,

Publis

THE FEDERAL RACES IN HAWAII, JULY 2006

All of the major sporting magazines are coming out with their pre-season football polls and predictions and Publis does the same for Hawaii politics with what information I’ve found out. (For what its worth, Publis is placing a bet that UH will have a 9-4 season.) Earlier this month, the Honolulu Advertiser came out with a poll on the major Federal races in Hawaii. Publis is familiar with at least five other polls that have been placed recently and actually seen three of these. The numbers are pretty similar to what the Advertiser reported with a few discrepencies here and there. But Publis has always contended that the best predictor is and continues to be the Chinatown betting parlors.

RACES YOU’D EXPECT

This year is a little strange as Hawaii voters don’t seem particularly pissed off and there doesn’t seem to be major hot button issues floating around, but there are still lots of major races. The US Senate race according to Chinatown is a lot closer than what the Advertiser poll suggests. Akaka may have a very narrow edge, but its just that, very narrow. The governor’s race is still expected to be a Lingle blow-out. Indeed, as stated in an earlier commentary, Chinatown punters have given up even giving Randy Iwase a line. Instead, all betting is now just on the size of the Lingle victory lap. Chinatown is giving 50/50 odds to an 18 point Lingle win. What’s really distressing if you’re a Democrat like me is that Chinatown appears to be giving Lingle a 1-in-3 chance of besting Iwase by over 30 points. That would give her the largest gubernatorial win in the history of the state. Publis feels, just like the USC v. UH game last year, if Iwase can just manage to beat the spread, chalk it up as a win. Unfortunately USC went on to completely blow out UH at Aloha Stadium last year and Linda may do the same to Randy this year.

DEM. CD2 RACE

What is really interesting is that Chinatown punters are offering a trifecta betting option for the Democratic Primary for the 2nd Congressional.

For those of you not familiar with horseracing, a trifecta is a particular type of bet that is very difficult to win, but it yields higher returns. To successfully win a ‘pure trifecta’ bet, you need to specify the horses that finish in the top three spots in the exact order in which they finish. To win a ‘box trifecta’ you simply need to specify the three horses that will come in the top three, irrespective of the order.

Chinatown betters are giving a good insight into how things are shaping up. Based on trifecta bets, it is clear that there are leading horses, dark horses and dead horses in the Dem.’s 2nd Congressional race. The leading horse are Mazie Hirono and Matt Matsunaga. Virtually every box trifecta bet includes Hirono’s name. Matsunaga looks good as his names seems to be included in almost all, box trifecta bets. Now comes the interesting part. The bets are pretty spread out for the third name between Clayton Hee, Nestor Garcia and Colleen Hanabusa. Hee, Garcia and Hanabusa are clearly the dark horses who are getting selected in trifecta bets, but none consistently. It seems that Chinatown is looking at these politicians as the dark horses who are unlikely to win, but might pull off an upset if say one of the front runners pulls (or should I say grabs) a Brian Blundell. There is no question that the dead horses are Gary Hoosier, Ron Menor and Brian Schatz. There are just no bets on these legislators. Publis hears some Chinatown punters may even soon start a betting line for the last place finisher between Hooiser, Menor and Schatz.

THE CASE-KAWANANAKOA OR AKAKA-HOUGE FACTOR

The other interesting dynamic based on looking at the various polls out there and the Chinatown betting line is the often overlooked Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional. Publis thinks Kawananakoa’s money bags will purchase the primary and even possibly the general election for him. What’s really fascinating, however, is watching how the bets are flowing between the Dem. US Senate primary and the Republican 2nd Congressional primary. Everyone knows a high turn out in the GOP primary that attracts independent swing voters probably hurts Case as Case does well with independents, but how does the dynamic within the GOP primary affect Case and Akaka?

On paper, Bob Hogue and Ed Case look like a match. Both are fairly moderate, mild-mannered haoles. Similarly, Dan Akaka and Quinten Kawananakoa have some commonalities on paper, as both are part-Hawaiian and have lots of money their opponents don’t have. What is truly interesting, however, are the odds for the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional district appear to be tracking the Democratic primary for the US Senate. It appears that voters attracted to Hogue are also attracted to Case, and voters attracted to Kawananakoa are also often attracted to Akaka. But here’s the trick, Hawaii voters can pick only one partisan ballot in the primary. Thus, a vote for Hogue in the GOP primary appears to take away a likely vote for Case in the Democratic primary, and vica versa. Likewise, a vote for Akaka or Kawananakoa takes away a probable vote for the other. Akaka supporters should be pulling for a high-turn out GOP primary where Hogue does well. Case should similarly be pulling for a low-turn out GOP primary and a Kawananakoa win. The Chinatown odds almost perfectly mirror this relationship. As Case’s odds go up, Hogue goes down, conversely when Kawanakakoa gets better odds, Akaka’s numbers almost perfectly go down in the opposite direction. Publis isn’t sure if the Hogue/Kawananakoa race is the driver that will alter the outcome of the Akaka/Case race or if it’s the other way around. Either way, it is very interesting.

Now comes the conspiracy theory – what will Linda Lingle do? For Lingle, things work much better for her with an 82 year old Dan Akaka keeping a Senate seat warm for her after she finishes her victory lap to a second term as governor rather than a 53 year old Ed Case who will be around for several re-election terms. Lingle could slightly tilt things for Akaka by urging GOP and independent voters to stay in the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional. But Lingle could very cleverly give a big tilt in the Democratic primary election for Akaka by helping Hogue. Publis will be watching very closely to see what the gov does.

PARTING THOUGHTS

Publis hopes you enjoy this election season. If not, like Michelle Wie looking for a win, there’s always the next one to look forward to. For Publis the dream races in the future to look for are: (I) Inouye’s Senate Seat – Lingle v. Hannemann. Admit it, if you’ve read this commentary this far then I know you’re like Publis and can’t wait for Lingle and Hannemann to take their fight out into the streets. Enough with this silly pussy-foot passive-aggressive crap these two’ve been doing for the past several months, let’s get the fight on in the open! (II) Governor – Abercrombie v. Carlisle. After Hawaii elects (and re-elects) a Jewish haole woman from Missouri, will Hawaii turn to a bearded haole guy from New York or a mustached haole guy from New Jersey? (III) Mayor – Djou v. Dela Cruz. Oh yeah, this is the one Publis eagerly looks forward to. Will voters turn to the intelligent and articulate pro-business whiz-kid from Hawaii Kai or instead prefer an affable and friendly pro-labor local boy from Wahiawa? Aloha.

Pau,

Publis Hawaii

Honolulu City Council Race Odds, November 2005

At the City Council Races

With UH floundering this fall, early odds are coming out for next year’s political campaign. The races for governor and senator look like a complete bore, but the Honolulu City Council races as usual, have an interesting flavor. With no challengers declares yet, here is an early handicapping of the four councilmen up in 2006:

GARY OKINO (Dist. IX, Pearl City, Aiea)
Chinatown line: 20 to 1 in favor of re-election
Probability of Re-election: A
Okino is a solid, if unspectacual councilmember. More important, however, he is a solid Democrat from a solid Democrat district, he has a solid, if unspectacular campaign war chest, and he hasn’t made any major screw ups in his six years on the council. It is highly unlikely for a Republican to beat Okino in this district and he hasn’t made any enemies in the Democratic Party for an intra-party challenger to surface. Okino is a nice, older, Japanese guy, and unless he beats his wife, guys like that simply don’t lose in Hawaii – ask Dan Inouye. Four years ago, he escaped with no opposition, and it looks like he may get another free pass for re‑election in ’06.

CHARLES DJOU (Dist. IV, Waikiki, Hawaii Kai)
Chinatown line: 12 to 1 in favor of re-election
Probability of Re-election: A-
Djou clearly is the most telegenic councilmember. He might have zero power, but he’s smart, articulate, and the public (or at least the media) likes him. He has the second biggest war chest of any Republican in Hawaii, albeit, he is a light-year behind number one, Linda Lingle. Djou’s conservative fiscal view fit his rich, upper-class East Honolulu district well. Djou is also tenacious and hard campaigner, only Brian Schatz can come close to Djou’s reputation for knocking on doors and marathon sign waving. He would be a shoo-in for re-election, but for the fact that he is a Republican. Democrats may run someone against him not to actually try to win, but just to rough him up a bit to slow down his rising star.

DONOVAN DELA CRUZ (Dist. II, Wahiawa, N. Shore, Windward Oahu)
Chinatown line: 10 to 1 in favor of re-election
Probability of Re-election: A-/B+
Dela Cruz is the youngest council chair in Honolulu history, but this probably says more about his loyalty to Ann Kobayashi than any prowess on his part. Nevertheless, Dela Cruz loves to be under estimated, ask Nestor Garcia after his abortive coup attempt. Dela Cruz has a decent war chest, $55k, for this stage of the game. More importantly, Dela Cruz’s district is like Russia – it is vast and any invader on to Dela Cruz’s turf will face immense hurdles. The only vulnerability Dela Cruz has may be from the Windward portion of his district which can have a strong, “Don’t-tread-on-me/Leave the Country Country” streak. They could punish Dela Cruz for promising not to raise taxes and then seeing him promptly vote for every tax increase proposed by Kobayashi. Right now though, that seems unlikely and Dela Cruz looks good for re-election.

ROD TAM (Dist. VI, Liliha, Nuuanu, Downtown)
Chinatown line: 1.5 to 1 in favor of re-election
Probability of Re-election: C+
Everyone knows Tam is the city council’s village idiot – thirty seconds listening to him speak on Olelo will easily confirm this impression. Yet even though every election the odds makers in Chinatown predict that Tam is going down, every election he beats the odds. Will ’06 finally be his last hurrah? Over his one council term, Tam got slammed with two separate ethics citations by the state and city ethics commissions; he proposed the crazy idea of placing the City dump in Koko Crater – something his pal Mufi Hannemann attributed as a dumb “Koko Crater mentality”; he got criticized for shopping building permits; and he got burned for his handling of the Hawaii memorial park Pagoda. This on top of lingering memories of Tam’s stupid idea of “naps-and-snacks” for government workers he proposed as a legislator. Yet Tam keeps on winning with a constituent service centered formula. Maybe this time his district will be embarrased by Tam’s lack of brainpower, but only just maybe.


Odds will likely change as challengers, if any, emerge, but aside from Tam, the odds look good for re-election for all the Councilmembers up this fall.

Sincerely,

Publius